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Almond and pistachio updates
Weather impacts both almond and pistachio crops.
Almond prices steadily rose in June on solid demand and tightening supply. Nonpareil kernels drove the gains while inshells lagged on sluggish demand from India. India, the largest export market, reduced purchases in the second half of June due to adequate inventories, elevated prices, expectation prices will fall when the 2026 crop hits the market, and delayed monsoon rains. (Diwali, a holiday that drives almond demand, occurs following the monsoon season.) The European Union approved duty-free access for U.S. tree nut imports up to 500,000 metric tons (551,156 tons) beginning July 1. While positive for the industry, it remains unclear how it will impact demand. (Season-to-date exports to Europe as of June 30 were 314.7 thousand tons, up 5.5% year over year.) Market attention is shifting to the 2026 crop. Blue Diamond’s latest estimate suggests the crop will come in between 2.65 and 2.7 billion pounds. The crop is maturing about ten days early and is showing notable variability in conditions due to weather impacts. High production costs are also leading many growers to reduce inputs. The Almond Board’s position report in June showed sales on the upcoming 2026 crop at 92 million pounds, significantly above last season but below the 5-year average.
Pistachio prices continued to rise in June as the market prepares for a short 2026 crop. Reports suggest production levels could be down by as much as 50% due to excessive heat during bloom. Shipment to retailers surged in May, driven by a 30% increase in exports as buyers competed to secure supply. Some processors had reportedly worked through their inventories by the end of June, while others are rationing.
Profitability
June 10, 2026Almonds: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Pistachios: Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
A smaller 2026 crop and average inventory carryover of the 2025 crop should support prices.
Challenging weather conditions may result in a very short 2026 crop. Producers with sufficient yields and/or crop insurance will fare better than their counterparts.
Exports are important to both almond and pistachio industries, making up 70% - 80% of domestic production. India has a long history of nut consumption and is the largest foreign market for almonds, taking almost exclusively in-shell nuts. China is the biggest market for pistachios, the result of a decade-long trend of younger generations shifting towards healthier diets. Europe has a long history of nut consumption and represents the second largest market for both U.S. almonds and pistachios. The Middle East is increasingly important due to rising demand in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. The U.S. dominates global almond production, making it perhaps less sensitive to retaliatory tariffs than other specialty crops. The U.S. imports a very limited amount of almonds and pistachios.
Almond production, exports, carry-over and imports
Almond Board July Position Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from August to July.
Pistachio production, exports, carry-over and imports
Administrative Committee for Pistachios Shipment Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from September to August.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on almonds and pistachios. For your convenience, the following links will take you to data for top export markets, including India, China and European Union (shelled almonds and inshell pistachios). WTO also tracks rates for almond imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to almonds and pistachios.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
Almond and pistachio updates
Weather impacts both almond and pistachio crops.
Almond prices steadily rose in June on solid demand and tightening supply. Nonpareil kernels drove the gains while inshells lagged on sluggish demand from India. India, the largest export market, reduced purchases in the second half of June due to adequate inventories, elevated prices, expectation prices will fall when the 2026 crop hits the market, and delayed monsoon rains. (Diwali, a holiday that drives almond demand, occurs following the monsoon season.) The European Union approved duty-free access for U.S. tree nut imports up to 500,000 metric tons (551,156 tons) beginning July 1. While positive for the industry, it remains unclear how it will impact demand. (Season-to-date exports to Europe as of June 30 were 314.7 thousand tons, up 5.5% year over year.) Market attention is shifting to the 2026 crop. Blue Diamond’s latest estimate suggests the crop will come in between 2.65 and 2.7 billion pounds. The crop is maturing about ten days early and is showing notable variability in conditions due to weather impacts. High production costs are also leading many growers to reduce inputs. The Almond Board’s position report in June showed sales on the upcoming 2026 crop at 92 million pounds, significantly above last season but below the 5-year average.
Pistachio prices continued to rise in June as the market prepares for a short 2026 crop. Reports suggest production levels could be down by as much as 50% due to excessive heat during bloom. Shipment to retailers surged in May, driven by a 30% increase in exports as buyers competed to secure supply. Some processors had reportedly worked through their inventories by the end of June, while others are rationing.
Profitability
June 10, 2026Almonds: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Pistachios: Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
A smaller 2026 crop and average inventory carryover of the 2025 crop should support prices.
Challenging weather conditions may result in a very short 2026 crop. Producers with sufficient yields and/or crop insurance will fare better than their counterparts.
Profitability
December 10, 2025Almonds: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Pistachios: Profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
A smaller than expected 2025 crop along with reasonably strong demand are supporting prices.
Demand remains strong and the 2025 crop has come in smaller than initial estimates, resulting in increasing prices.
Exports are important to both almond and pistachio industries, making up 70% - 80% of domestic production. India has a long history of nut consumption and is the largest foreign market for almonds, taking almost exclusively in-shell nuts. China is the biggest market for pistachios, the result of a decade-long trend of younger generations shifting towards healthier diets. Europe has a long history of nut consumption and represents the second largest market for both U.S. almonds and pistachios. The Middle East is increasingly important due to rising demand in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. The U.S. dominates global almond production, making it perhaps less sensitive to retaliatory tariffs than other specialty crops. The U.S. imports a very limited amount of almonds and pistachios.
Almond production, exports, carry-over and imports
Almond Board July Position Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from August to July.
Pistachio production, exports, carry-over and imports
Administrative Committee for Pistachios Shipment Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from September to August.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on almonds and pistachios. For your convenience, the following links will take you to data for top export markets, including India, China and European Union (shelled almonds and inshell pistachios). WTO also tracks rates for almond imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to almonds and pistachios.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
