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Almond and pistachio updates
Weather impacts both almond and pistachio crops.
Almond prices increased in April. The Almond Board of California’s latest position report showed a notable increase in shipment levels in March, leading to more bullish sentiment among sellers. (Position reports can have notable impacts on prices as buyers and sellers readjust their expectations.) Export and domestic shipments increased 4.6% and 17.2% month over month, with large gains observed for Latin America, China, Japan and Europe. Exports made up 78% of total shipments as of March, or 1.38 billion pounds. Uncommitted inventory levels are now on par with March 2025 levels, reducing concerns that there will be excess inventory carry-over into the 2026 marketing season. LandIQ estimates total almond acres fell to 1.39 million in 2025, or 3.3%, with the largest declines observed in Kern, Merced, Stanislaus, and Fresno counties. This estimate represents the first acreage decline on record. April experienced cooler and wetter conditions than March, and while this led to reduced water consumption, it increased the risk of fungus infections on developing nuts and foliage. There are also increased reports of pest pressures, including leaf-footed plant bugs, stink bugs and boxelder bugs. With reduced acreage and variable weather conditions, the 2026 crop is unlikely to be excessively large.
Pistachio prices fell notably in April following a significant run-up that started in January. The Administrative Committee for Pistachio’s latest shipment report showed a sharp decline in exports in March, particularly to the Middle East. The conflict in Iran disrupted access to Saudi Arabia, Jordon and the United Arab Emirates. Strong inventories in Europe have also softened demand. Exports made up 81% of total shipments as of March, which is in line with historical averages. Inventories are 20% higher than this time last season, though there is little risk of an excessively large carry-over into next season. The 2026 crop may come in notably smaller than previously thought as hot temperatures resulted in poor pollination, maligned bloom and the premature dropping of petals for many producers. Growers in more southern regions of California appear to be most impacted. While California received sufficient chill hours, Arizona reportedly did not, and this may further impact yields. (Pistachio trees require a certain number of hours between 32 and 45 degrees.) Despite these challenges, demand remains strong and supportive of higher prices.
Profitability
March 11, 2026Almonds: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Pistachios: Profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
A smaller than expected 2025 crop, reasonably strong demand and potential weather impacts on the 2026 crop are supporting prices.
Strong and growing demand coupled with a smaller than expected 2025 crop among both the U.S. and key global producers are supporting prices.
Exports are important to both almond and pistachio industries, making up 70% - 80% of domestic production. India has a long history of nut consumption and is the largest foreign market for almonds, taking almost exclusively in-shell nuts. China is the biggest market for pistachios, the result of a decade-long trend of younger generations shifting towards healthier diets. Europe has a long history of nut consumption and represents the second largest market for both U.S. almonds and pistachios. The Middle East is increasingly important due to rising demand in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. The U.S. dominates global almond production, making it perhaps less sensitive to retaliatory tariffs than other specialty crops. The U.S. imports a very limited amount of almonds and pistachios.
Almond production, exports, carry-over and imports
Almond Board July Position Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from August to July.
Pistachio production, exports, carry-over and imports
Administrative Committee for Pistachios Shipment Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from September to August.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on almonds and pistachios. For your convenience, the following links will take you to data for top export markets, including India, China and European Union (shelled almonds and inshell pistachios). WTO also tracks rates for almond imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to almonds and pistachios.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
Almond and pistachio updates
Weather impacts both almond and pistachio crops.
Almond prices increased in April. The Almond Board of California’s latest position report showed a notable increase in shipment levels in March, leading to more bullish sentiment among sellers. (Position reports can have notable impacts on prices as buyers and sellers readjust their expectations.) Export and domestic shipments increased 4.6% and 17.2% month over month, with large gains observed for Latin America, China, Japan and Europe. Exports made up 78% of total shipments as of March, or 1.38 billion pounds. Uncommitted inventory levels are now on par with March 2025 levels, reducing concerns that there will be excess inventory carry-over into the 2026 marketing season. LandIQ estimates total almond acres fell to 1.39 million in 2025, or 3.3%, with the largest declines observed in Kern, Merced, Stanislaus, and Fresno counties. This estimate represents the first acreage decline on record. April experienced cooler and wetter conditions than March, and while this led to reduced water consumption, it increased the risk of fungus infections on developing nuts and foliage. There are also increased reports of pest pressures, including leaf-footed plant bugs, stink bugs and boxelder bugs. With reduced acreage and variable weather conditions, the 2026 crop is unlikely to be excessively large.
Pistachio prices fell notably in April following a significant run-up that started in January. The Administrative Committee for Pistachio’s latest shipment report showed a sharp decline in exports in March, particularly to the Middle East. The conflict in Iran disrupted access to Saudi Arabia, Jordon and the United Arab Emirates. Strong inventories in Europe have also softened demand. Exports made up 81% of total shipments as of March, which is in line with historical averages. Inventories are 20% higher than this time last season, though there is little risk of an excessively large carry-over into next season. The 2026 crop may come in notably smaller than previously thought as hot temperatures resulted in poor pollination, maligned bloom and the premature dropping of petals for many producers. Growers in more southern regions of California appear to be most impacted. While California received sufficient chill hours, Arizona reportedly did not, and this may further impact yields. (Pistachio trees require a certain number of hours between 32 and 45 degrees.) Despite these challenges, demand remains strong and supportive of higher prices.
Profitability
March 11, 2026Almonds: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Pistachios: Profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
A smaller than expected 2025 crop, reasonably strong demand and potential weather impacts on the 2026 crop are supporting prices.
Strong and growing demand coupled with a smaller than expected 2025 crop among both the U.S. and key global producers are supporting prices.
Profitability
December 10, 2025Almonds: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Pistachios: Profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
A smaller than expected 2025 crop along with reasonably strong demand are supporting prices.
Demand remains strong and the 2025 crop has come in smaller than initial estimates, resulting in increasing prices.
Exports are important to both almond and pistachio industries, making up 70% - 80% of domestic production. India has a long history of nut consumption and is the largest foreign market for almonds, taking almost exclusively in-shell nuts. China is the biggest market for pistachios, the result of a decade-long trend of younger generations shifting towards healthier diets. Europe has a long history of nut consumption and represents the second largest market for both U.S. almonds and pistachios. The Middle East is increasingly important due to rising demand in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. The U.S. dominates global almond production, making it perhaps less sensitive to retaliatory tariffs than other specialty crops. The U.S. imports a very limited amount of almonds and pistachios.
Almond production, exports, carry-over and imports
Almond Board July Position Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from August to July.
Pistachio production, exports, carry-over and imports
Administrative Committee for Pistachios Shipment Reports. U.S. Census Bureau. Crop year is from September to August.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on almonds and pistachios. For your convenience, the following links will take you to data for top export markets, including India, China and European Union (shelled almonds and inshell pistachios). WTO also tracks rates for almond imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to almonds and pistachios.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
