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Forest product updates
Lumber prices gain slightly as industry enters peak construction season.
Average lumber prices rose moderately again in April. Single family home starts jumped in March as peak construction season got underway. While this is supportive of lumber demand, many remain concerned about home buyer affordability going into the 2026 season. According to Zillow, total homeowner payments as a share of income are 33% as of February 2026, a notable rise from pre-pandemic levels when they averaged about 25%. (Zillow considers anything above 30% as unaffordable.) The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index continues to show weak sentiment within the industry, with the subcomponent ‘Traffic of Buyers’ in April near 2008-09 lows. Residential improvements as measured by private residential fixed investment spending fell slightly in Q1 2026 and are now down 3% year over year. Despite the soft reading, spending on residential improvements remains near historically high levels.
Reports suggest log prices are steady to slightly increasing throughout western Oregon and Washington as some mills increase log purchases. Log exports have been relatively strong in Q1 2026, and this has in small part been supported by China reopening their market to U.S. producers.
Profitability
March 11, 2026Forest product mills: Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
Timberlands: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Profitability is mixed and highly sensitive to small price changes. Less efficient mills are experiencing the most pressure. There is room for optimism heading into 2026’s peak construction season, but housing affordability remains a significant challenge.
While mills remain cautious to not overcommit on log purchases, prices remain generally profitable for timberland owners.
The U.S. housing market is the primary driver of forest products demand. Log and lumber exports play a relatively minor role, making up about 6% and 3% of total domestic production, respectively. On the West Coast, log producers have historically benefited from strong Japanese demand for high-quality grades. Following the Great Recession, demand from China increased significantly to support housing construction. These trends are reversing due to aging demographics and weakening economies. The Softwood Lumber Agreement sets the terms for Canadian lumber exports to the U.S., which make up about a quarter of total domestic supply.
Log production, exports and imports
Forisk. U.S. Census Bureau. Production levels were calculated using region specific recovery rates. Trade data was converted using .22 thousand board feet per cubic meter.
Lumber production, exports and imports
Forisk. U.S. Census Bureau. Trade data was converted using .452 thousand board feet per cubic meter.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on forest products. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data for top markets, including Japan and Vietnam. Logs are currently exempt from tariffs for Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. The U.S. applies countervailing duties on Canadian lumber imports based on an annual review process (detailed information can be found at the Federal Register). Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to forest products.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
Forest product updates
Lumber prices gain slightly as industry enters peak construction season.
Average lumber prices rose moderately again in April. Single family home starts jumped in March as peak construction season got underway. While this is supportive of lumber demand, many remain concerned about home buyer affordability going into the 2026 season. According to Zillow, total homeowner payments as a share of income are 33% as of February 2026, a notable rise from pre-pandemic levels when they averaged about 25%. (Zillow considers anything above 30% as unaffordable.) The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index continues to show weak sentiment within the industry, with the subcomponent ‘Traffic of Buyers’ in April near 2008-09 lows. Residential improvements as measured by private residential fixed investment spending fell slightly in Q1 2026 and are now down 3% year over year. Despite the soft reading, spending on residential improvements remains near historically high levels.
Reports suggest log prices are steady to slightly increasing throughout western Oregon and Washington as some mills increase log purchases. Log exports have been relatively strong in Q1 2026, and this has in small part been supported by China reopening their market to U.S. producers.
Profitability
March 11, 2026Forest product mills: Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
Timberlands: Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Profitability is mixed and highly sensitive to small price changes. Less efficient mills are experiencing the most pressure. There is room for optimism heading into 2026’s peak construction season, but housing affordability remains a significant challenge.
While mills remain cautious to not overcommit on log purchases, prices remain generally profitable for timberland owners.
The U.S. housing market is the primary driver of forest products demand. Log and lumber exports play a relatively minor role, making up about 6% and 3% of total domestic production, respectively. On the West Coast, log producers have historically benefited from strong Japanese demand for high-quality grades. Following the Great Recession, demand from China increased significantly to support housing construction. These trends are reversing due to aging demographics and weakening economies. The Softwood Lumber Agreement sets the terms for Canadian lumber exports to the U.S., which make up about a quarter of total domestic supply.
Log production, exports and imports
Forisk. U.S. Census Bureau. Production levels were calculated using region specific recovery rates. Trade data was converted using .22 thousand board feet per cubic meter.
Lumber production, exports and imports
Forisk. U.S. Census Bureau. Trade data was converted using .452 thousand board feet per cubic meter.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on forest products. For your convenience, the following links will take you to tariff data for top markets, including Japan and Vietnam. Logs are currently exempt from tariffs for Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. The U.S. applies countervailing duties on Canadian lumber imports based on an annual review process (detailed information can be found at the Federal Register). Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to forest products.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
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