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Wine grape updates
Inventory surplus persists as demand stays soft.
Markets continue to be characterized by falling consumption among low- to mid-value wines and excess bulk inventory levels. According to NIQ data, year-over-year off-premise and on-premise sales declined 2% by value in May 2026. Declines in off-premise sales occurred across nearly all major varieties except Sauvignon Blanc. Direct-to-Consumer shipment values fell 5% year over year and declines were observed across each region except Napa Valley. Bulk wine inventories are at/near peak levels, with more recent gains occurring in the coastal growing regions of California due to weak demand and excess custom crush (particularly in Sonoma, Mendocino, Napa and Lake Counties).
Wine grape crops are developing early across California due to mild early-season weather, which may result in challenges later in the season depending on summer heat. Some growers are removing vineyards, idling acreage, reducing inputs and/or selling assets in response to weak markets. These actions may lead to a smaller, more variable 2026 crop. Harvest is expected to begin in August and buyers are reportedly delaying purchases to better understand how retail sales are trending. Crops are also coming on earlier than average in Oregon and Washington, though it remains too early to gauge quality or yield.
Profitability
June 10, 2026Wine: Slightly unprofitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Wine grapes: Slightly unprofitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Wine demand continues to soften and pressure the industry, particularly in the lower- to mid-range segments.
Weak demand and excess bulk wine inventories continue to pressure wine grape producers.
The U.S. is the fourth largest New World (non-European) producer globally, it is the largest consumer, importing a third of its domestic supply. Key foreign suppliers include Italy, Canada, France, Australia, Chile and New Zealand. The U.S. exports 8% of its production, with about 50% split between the United Kingdom and Canada.
Wine production, exports and imports
Source: Wine Institute. U.S. Census Bureau.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on wine. For your convenience, the following link will take you to tariff data for the United Kingdom. Wine is currently exempt from tariffs for Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. WTO also tracks rates for wine imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to wine.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
Wine grape updates
Inventory surplus persists as demand stays soft.
Markets continue to be characterized by falling consumption among low- to mid-value wines and excess bulk inventory levels. According to NIQ data, year-over-year off-premise and on-premise sales declined 2% by value in May 2026. Declines in off-premise sales occurred across nearly all major varieties except Sauvignon Blanc. Direct-to-Consumer shipment values fell 5% year-over-year and declines were observed across each region except Napa Valley. Bulk wine inventories are at/near peak levels, with more recent gains occurring in the coastal growing regions of California due to weak demand and excess custom crush (particularly in Sonoma, Mendocino, Napa and Lake Counties).
Wine grape crops are developing early across California due to mild early-season weather, which may result in challenges later in the season depending on summer heat. Some growers are removing vineyards, idling acreage, reducing inputs and/or selling assets in response to weak markets. These actions may lead to a smaller, more variable 2026 crop. Harvest is expected to begin in August and buyers are reportedly delaying purchases to better understand how retail sales are trending. Crops are also coming on earlier than average in Oregon and Washington, though it remains too early to gauge quality or yield.
Profitability
June 10, 2026Wine: Slightly unprofitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Wine grapes: Slightly unprofitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Wine demand continues to soften and pressure the industry, particularly in the lower- to mid-range segments.
Weak demand and excess bulk wine inventories continue to pressure wine grape producers.
The U.S. is the fourth largest New World (non-European) producer globally, it is the largest consumer, importing a third of its domestic supply. Key foreign suppliers include Italy, Canada, France, Australia, Chile and New Zealand. The U.S. exports 8% of its production, with about 50% split between the United Kingdom and Canada.
Wine production, exports and imports
Source: Wine Institute. U.S. Census Bureau.
Tariff tracker - Tariff rates applied to U.S. trade partners are consistenly updated to reflect policy changes. The World Trade Organization (WTO) tracks duties and tariffs on wine. For your convenience, the following link will take you to tariff data for the United Kingdom. Wine is currently exempt from tariffs for Canada under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but please refer to the U.S. Trade Representative website for up-to-date information. WTO also tracks rates for wine imports to the U.S. Please consult with a trade lawyer or professional for detailed and up-to-date insights on tariff rates and their application to wine.
For guidance on interpreting duty and tariff rates, please refer to our Tariff Guide.
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